One of the main reasons for the lack of flash flood risk assessment in small basins under climate change is the coarse accuracy of climate models in simulating rainfall conditions, which could not consider factors such as tropical cyclones (TCs), topography, and regional circulation that cause extreme rainfall within small areas (Lafon et al. In the existing studies, flood risk assessment was mainly conducted for large- or medium-sized basins. ( 2013) used the multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) of CMIP5 coupled with the CaMa-Flood model to simulate the global 100a flood inundation characteristics, and they estimated that the population exposed to flood disasters will increase tenfold by the end of the 21st century. Common numerical simulation models include SWAT, CaMa-Flood, and FLO-2D (Hurkmans et al. The main methods of flood risk assessment include evaluation index and numerical model simulation. They have been distributed in 2058 counties, with a distribution area of 4.87 million km 2, and flash flood disasters have affected a population of 570 million people before 2016, according to the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Office of China (Cui and Zou 2016). Flash floods have a major impact in China (Zhang et al. Therefore, understanding the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of flood disasters and carrying out the risk assessment of flood disasters in coastal areas in the context of climate change is important for the sustainable development of the region.įloods are classified as riverine floods, coastal floods, and flash floods depending on the area where the flood disaster occurs (Griffiths et al. With the rapid socioeconomic development in recent decades, about USD 70.6 billion in economic damages and 4354 casualties were caused by flooding in China’s coastal region during 1989−2014 (Fang et al. Extreme precipitation events increase the risk of flood disasters (Su et al. Hourly precipitation data from 1215 stations in China show that the precipitation intensity and maximum hourly precipitation increased by 0.7–1.1% and 0.9–2.8% on average per decade, respectively, during 1961−2012, mainly in central China and southeastern coastal areas (Jian et al. Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events (Su et al. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a special report about managing the risks of extreme events and disasters in 2012, which indicates that the evolution of extreme disaster events such as floods has become an important issue to be addressed in climate change impact and adaptation research (Lavell et al. Our findings also provide a reference for regional planning and construction of flood control facilities in flash flood-prone areas, which may help to reduce the risk of flash floods.įlood disasters induced by extreme precipitation events have become a major challenge to regional security and development. The study highlights the influence of socioeconomic factors on the change of flash flood disaster risk in small river basins. The main drivers in the case study area are GDP density ( q = 0.85), process rainfall ( q = 0.74), asset density ( q = 0.68), and population density ( q = 0.67). Under the RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP8.5-SSP5 scenarios, the risk of flash floods is expected to increase by 88.79% and 95.57%, respectively. The results show that flash flood risk in the Yantanxi River Basin will significantly increase, and that socioeconomic factors and precipitation are the main driving forces. To obtain the flash flood inundation characteristics through hydrologic–hydrodynamic modeling, the study combined representative concentration pathway (RCP) and shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios to examine the change of flash flood risk and used the geographical detector to explore the driving factors behind the change. This study took tropical cyclones–extreme precipitation–flash floods as an example to carry out a risk assessment of flash floods under climate change in the Yantanxi River Basin, southeastern China. In the context of climate change, the impact of extreme precipitation and its chain effects has intensified in the southeastern coastal region of China, posing a serious threat to the socioeconomic development in the region.
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